Are continuing claims of broad Internet use overstated? Says one research company: yes. Regular Internet use by American adults has flattened for about 63 percent of the population, with any increase contingent on turning the holdouts – those as yet either unconnected to the Net or outright resisting cyberspace – according to a new study by Mediamark Research.
The company study said that while almost 80 percent of American adults have Net access at home, on the job, or elsewhere, only 63 percent used online services or the Net in the 30 days prior to the in-home interviews done to form the study.
"Unlike a phone-recruited sample, data derived from MRI's area (geographic) probability sample are not inherently skewed toward Internet-wired households," said Mediamark vice president of client services Andy Arthur, announcing the study findings. "Suggesting a long-term plateau in growth, our data show there is an entrenched group of non-connected adults and a diehard group of resistors that promise to hold out for the foreseeable future."
The study indicated that in the 12 months ended in April, Internet and online users rose by only 1.7 percent above the previous 12-month period, compared to an 11.3 percent jump between 1999 and 2000. Arthur said those and related data suggests claiming continued explosive Net growth is "grossly exaggerated."
Arthur also said the youngest and most affluent and best-educated segments still lead overall Net use growth, "but usage increased measurably among all segments of the population."
But starting in spring 2002, growth among what Mediamark determined the highest-use groups – young, upmarket users – hit a saturation point, with usage flattening especially among those 18-24 years old, those with incomes of $150,000 or better, and those with post-graduate degrees.
And that, Mediamark said, suggests that future Internet growth could depend in large part on those who aren't connected for various reasons and on those who have refused to connect. Those who have Net access but refuse to use it "have stubbornly represented 20 percent of all adults with Internet access" since the company began measuring Internet access a few years ago.
The unconnected – those lacking access anywhere, home or otherwise, shrunk during actual Net use expansion, Mediamark said, and are now only 20.4 percent of American adults. But they, too, seem to be flattening out for now. "[T]he percentage of unconnected adults has decreased only 1.9 percent since MRI's Fall 2002 study," Mediamark said. "In contrast, between the 2001 Spring study and the 2002 Fall study, the percentage of unconnected adults declined by a much larger 11.5 percent."
