Don’t be surprised if non-travel related online commerce jumps to $15 billion in e-tail sales for the 2004 holiday season, according to online market researchers comScore Networks.
“We believe consumers’ growing familiarity and confidence with online shopping, coupled with a dramatic increase in broadband penetration and continuing efforts by retailers to simplify the shopping process across channels, will translate to substantial gains for online merchants again this year,” said senior vice president Dan Hess, announcing the company findings.
“While forecasted growth will be slightly lower this season than last, online retailers will still close the year up about 25 percent compared to 2003 – an impressive accomplishment given mixed signals of consumer confidence and a soft economy in general.”
Hess said the growth strength would likely be jewelry, furniture, appliances and equipment, and home and garden products, which he said shows a shift to buying online for goods that were bought offline traditionally, even as the Internet began becoming a more popular shopping source over the years.
“Aside from the growth in direct online spending, we’ll also continue to see the substantial impact on offline retail sales of consumers’ use of the Internet to research products and compare prices,” he said.
ComScore said the total nontravel spending would pass the $20 billion level for the first time in the full fourth quarter of 2004. Part of the reason is growing consumer comfort with Internet shopping, and other reasons include more people with broadband and more efforts by online sellers to make Internet shopping easier.
Other Internet market researchers seem to think comScore’s forecast is right in the middle of their own. JupiterResearch is predicting a $21.6 billion holiday e-tail take, while Forrester Research says it could hit $13.6 billion between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
