Wi-Fi Past, Present & Future

Suddenly it's everywhere: Wi-Fi's in offices, on college campuses, in public parks. Commercial ventures like Borders bookstores, Starbucks, Radisson hotels - even McDonald's! - are installing wireless hotspots to attract the Net-addicted and make them linger; ISPs like Road Runner and EarthLink offer wireless home networking kits as add-ons to their broadband connection services; Gartner Dataquest estimates that 4.2 million Americans use Wi-Fi services today, and predicts that number will grow to 31 million by 2007, with Pyramid Research predicating approximately 707 million Wi-Fi users worldwide by 2007, completely eclipsing the number of cellular data users.

The picture in Europe is equally rosy, with research firm ON World predicting that 37 million Wi-Fi users will be scattered around the continent within five years. Currently, only about 15 percent of Europe's wireless technology consumers take advantage of existing hotspots, primarily because prices for the service are viewed as exorbitant, ON World said: European prices are more than double the average price of similar American services and four times the average of those in the Asia-Pacific region, where Wi-Fi already is a way of life. Still, by 2009, IDC expects most European mobile phone companies to offer Wi-Fi as an invisible integrated service.

From Wi-Fi's humble beginnings has grown a behemoth that now threatens to overtake other modes of connecting - and that's not really surprising, considering today's mobile society. The very thing that makes the service so appealing, however, now seems to be its Achilles' heel: Wi-Fi's ease of implementation for the average user makes it a security nightmare. Far from sounding a death knell for the technology, however, challenges like security and price have spurred some creative solutions that are poised to make Star Trek-ian communication seem like a grade-school science project.

Where It's Been

Short for "wireless fidelity" (a play on the old phonographic term "high-fidelity," or "Hi-Fi") Wi-Fi is a wireless network protocol that uses unregulated spread-spectrum radio waves in the 2.4 gigahertz or 5 GHz bands to establish network connections and transmit data (not, until very recently, voice). Wi-Fi operates on the same Industrial, Scientific, and Medical (ISM) waves as common household appliances like microwave ovens, cordless telephones, infant monitors, and wireless intercoms. It allows PCs, PDAs and the like to share a single high-speed Internet connection over a distance of about 100-300 feet without a physical link. The term Wi-Fi, coined in 1999 by the Wi-Fi Alliance (formerly Wireless Ethernet Compatibility Alliance or WECA; www.wi-fi.org), is simply a more concise way to refer to products and services certified by the alliance as meeting the technical specifications IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, and 802.11g (much like "Ethernet" refers to the technical specification IEEE 802.3 for wired connections).

The original Wi-Fi concept, first put into service in the 1980s, was to create unimpeded network access over a local loop that bypassed the Internet. Although individual nodes on the network could serve as Internet gateways, the primary function for Wi-Fi was seen as internal communication. Early wireless local access networks (WLANs) ran at speeds of 1 and 2 megabits per second, far slower than their wired (Ethernet) counterparts that operated at 10 and 100 Mbps. Still, in 1997, when the 802.11 standard was adopted by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), the lack of speed seemed to be an acceptable tradeoff for the flexibility of the networks (just drop a new client wherever it's needed, no wires required!) and the ease with which they could be established. Two years later WLANs gained increased commercial acceptance when the 802.11b standard was released, upping data rates to 11 Mbps. That same year, several major hardware manufacturers banded together to form the WECA, which even though it has changed its name, maintains as its primary goal the promotion of both interoperability of products and services and rapid adoption of the technology. The 802.11a and 802.11g specifications, which ramped up transmission speeds even further, debuted in 2002 and 2003, respectively.

Although called "wireless," Wi-Fi does depend on some hard-wired architecture. Typically, the bridge to the wireless network is an access point (AP) that is hard-wired into a conventional Ethernet. Using embedded or plug-in wireless network interface cards, client devices (PCs, PDAs, tablet PCs, etc.) can communicate not only with the Internet via the AP, but also with each other. In order to connect to the network, clients must "listen" for the AP's Service Set Identifier (broadcast approximately 10 times per second), and then request an IP address within the WLAN. Once associated with the WLAN, clients can accomplish anything allowed by the network administrator: surf the Net, view network folders, engage in peer-to-peer communication, etc.

Even without wires, WLANs can operate at broadband speeds. As speeds have increased, so have signal distances. Wi-Fi 802.11a WLANs can achieve transmission rates of up to 54 Mbps within a range of 150-300 feet from the AP, depending upon the presence of walls, floors, trees, and other obstacles in the path of the signal. Directional antennas can enhance range significantly, although the further a client moves from the AP, the slower transmission rates become. Wi-Fi 802.11b WLANs, for example, can operate at "fallback" speeds of 5.5 Mbps, 2 Mbps, and 1 Mbps at distances of up to 1,500 feet.

Where It Is

Like broadband connections in the U.S., Wi-Fi WLANs are ubiquitous in the Asia-Pacific region, mostly because the infrastructure to support them was laid at the same time as that underpinning the area's advanced cellular telephone services. Mobile device adoption in Japan, Korea, and other developed Asian nations far outpaces that anywhere else in the world. Although Wi-Fi WLANs have been in use at U.S. government, medical, and educational facilities for several years, they are only now beginning to creep into the consciousness of the average consumer, owing to some recent high-profile commercial installations. Starbucks started the trend as a marketing gesture, recognizing that American consumers are addicted to their connections and probably would linger over their lattes and croissants longer if they didn't have to give them up while eating. Other cafes are beginning to follow suit, as are bookstores, multi-family residential buildings, airline terminals, hotels, and even cruise ships (don't want to miss an e-mail while on vacation!).

Because more and more commercial and industrial locations are installing Wi-Fi for their own internal use, wireless users often don't even have to be customers, residents, or employees of a particular facility to use its WLAN - and that can be a problem. About a year ago, the practice known as "war driving" hit the technology press in a big way, indelibly illustrating Wi-Fi's biggest drawback: a lack of innate network security. War drivers - mobile hackers who penetrate corporate WLANs using setups as simple as a laptop and an antenna made from a Pringles® potato chip can - demonstrated indisputably how Wi-Fi's greatest strength also embodies its greatest weakness: The open-by-design nature of the medium is far too open, compromising sensitive data. Even the U.S. Department of Defense weighed in on the subject, eventually working out a plan with the U.S. FCC that involved not only freeing more frequencies for public use, but also encrypting military transmissions viewed as essential to the nation's homeland security interests.

Wireless Equivalent Privacy (WEP), the security mechanism included in the Wi-Fi standard and designed to make wireless networks as secure as any unsecured wired network, has been soundly criticized for a number of flaws ever since a highly publicized paper detailing them was released by the University of California at Berkeley in January 2001. Since then, the issue of wireless security has become a hotly debated topic internationally. A number of companies - including Bluefire Security, Fortress Technologies, Koolspan, Columbitech, AirMagnet, and the Palo Alto Research Center - have launched new products to make wireless communication more secure. Solutions include client plug-ins and software, encryption, intrusion detection, and firewalls. In addition, big hardware manufacturers like industry leaders NetGear and Linksys sternly warn consumers that out-of-the-box network configurations - designed to be working within minutes even in the hands of a newbie - do not have security features enabled. PARC's solution, in particular, promises to have even novice users up and running at the highest security level in two steps that take two minutes (compared to the traditional 30-step, 90-minute process).

Providers have been slow to pick up the Wi-Fi banner partly because of security risks and partly because there isn't much money in offering the service - at least not yet in Europe and North America. Business models are in flux, on both the consumer and carrier ends. Some carriers are experimenting with per-access charges and standalone service; others with bundling Wi-Fi services into cellular telephone offerings; still others with providing Wi-Fi to Internet service providers who then can resell it to their commercial and residential customers as an add-on to basic service. Ultimately, most carriers feel, consumers will demand Wi-Fi access at pricing that resembles what they're accustomed to for cellular and wired Net service: unlimited logins and transmissions for one low monthly fee. That's how Korea Telecom made $65 million in revenue from Wi-Fi last year, IDC says. According to the Pyramid Research report, T-Mobile claims more than 30 percent of its U.S. hotspot users also subscribe to its cellular service, indicating consumer desire for the two types of access to be bundled.

At deadline, there were approximately 10,000 commercial Wi-Fi hotspots in the U.S. That number is expected to grow to about 50,000 by 2006. Boingo Wireless estimates there are 2 million potential high-traffic hotspot locations in the United States alone. Few analysts dispute that Wi-Fi will be the next big wave in those areas where it isn't already huge. As consumer demand grows - and Boingo, T-Mobile, and others think it inevitably will - it'll be hard to find a space in the civilized world without Wi-Fi service. That demand won't be long in coming, either. The lure of un-tethered broadband is simply too difficult to resist.

Where It's Going

As Wi-Fi matures, it also will change. Unlike current-generation cell phone users in most parts of the world - at least until the long-anticipated 3G networks kick in - Wi-Fi users already can download streaming audio and video to their handheld devices and view e-mail attachments inline. Because connections never can be too fast or too "broad," though, there's much more in store for the technology. Three newcomers to the wireless scene - WiMAX, Gi-Fi, and ZigBee, all on the near horizon now - stand poised to take the technology to a new level. Combined with emerging standards like hotly debated radio frequency identification (RFID), they may represent the first steps toward incorporating everything from televisions to kitchen appliances into the wireless loop. Voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP, - the bane of legislators and telecoms worldwide - is making initial appearances on the wireless networks, as well, heating things up even further.

Backed by industry giants Intel and Nokia, the 802.16x metropolitan area network (WiMAX) standard was approved by the IEEE in early 2003 and had just begun to be marketed at this writing. It may not be commercially deployed on any large scale until 2005. Receiving the most attention currently is the 802.16a specification, which operates in the unlicensed 2-11 GHz range in line-of-sight environments. The 802.16b specification, which operates in the licensed 11-66 GHz range and will have greater throughput speeds, is still in development by the IEEE but is expected to be released this year. Comparing WiMAX stats to those of other connection methods, it's easy to see why WiMAX is generating excitement: WiMAX offers a point-to-multipoint range of up to 30 miles at speeds as fast as 268 Mbps (under ideal conditions). In comparison, DSL and cable modem connections move data at about 0.4Mbps to 2 Mbps, common business-class T-1 lines offer speeds of about 1.5 Mbps, and dial-up modems have throughput speeds of about 0.05 Mbps. The WiMAX protocols also allow 802.16x to carry asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) and voice traffic in addition to conventional Ethernet and TCP/IP. Traditional telecoms are understandably nervous.

Similar to the Wi-Fi Alliance, the WiMAX Forum was founded by a group of manufacturers to promote the standard and certify devices and services as interoperable under the standard. Besides Intel and Nokia, founding members of the Forum include Atheros, Fujitsu, and Proxim.

Gi-Fi (for "gigabit fidelity"), a technology being developed by researchers at Massachusetts-based NewLANS Inc., has been described as a "super" wireless network that can shuttle data at speeds of up to 2 gigabits per second. Presented to the IEEE 802 LAN/MAN Standards Committee Plenary Meeting in November 2003, Gi-Fi plans to use the 56 GHz-and-above frequencies opened by the FTC last year. Part of a movement called "wireless gigabit to the desktop" (wGTTD), Gi-Fi (if approved) would be secure at all levels, cost-effective, and efficient, and would allow deployment of next-gen, bandwidth-intensive applications like high-resolution videoconferencing, broadcast video, video-on-demand, distance learning, and a host of other high-concept services once thought to be unachievable over wireless networks, according to NewLANS founder Dev Gupta.

ZigBee, only recently emerged from its cocoon, is an open-standards protocol that promises machine-to-machine communication. Using technology closely related to Bluetooth, ZigBee will dominate inter-house communications by 2008, according to market research firm West Technology Research Solutions.

ZigBee is an open-standards protocol that uses the IEEE 802.15.4 specification for ultrawideband wireless communication over distances of 30 to 225 feet using very little power and without the need for a clear line of sight. It is chipset-embedded, and West Technology sees its biggest impact in the home instead of in corporate applications: The company predicts that shipments of ZigBee chips for home automation will grow rapidly, exceeding 339 million units within four years. Look for the technology to be embedded in light switches, home security systems (including fire and smoke detectors), thermostats, major and minor appliances, audio and video systems, landscaping (like sprinkler and lighting systems), and access control devices. Because ZigBee can form mesh networks, it allows appliances with properly configured chips to "talk" to each other, forming ad hoc networks that can relay information over larger distances (say, from a controller to a toaster to a washing machine to a lawn sprinkler to the gate at the entrance to an estate). Companies like Sanyo, Microsoft, and Intel already are working to make ZigBee-enabled homes a reality. NetGear chief executive Patrick Lo says he already has seen Wi-Fi incorporated into high-definition digital TVs in Japan, and he expects retrofitting of existing analog devices like gaming consoles, televisions, and radios to become big business in 2004.

Gerry Purdy, Ph.D., principal analyst for California research firm MobileTrax LLC, expects even bigger things for the future of wireless technology. In an article entitled "The Next 50 Years in Mobile and Wireless" published at The Mobile Imperative, Purdy outlined his predictions, which include lifetime storage and sharing of handwritten notes; the death of printed materials (including textbooks) as easily accessed, constantly updated electronic ones take their place; replacement of traditional forms of payment by handheld financial systems that integrate bank accounts, credit cards, and IDs; pervasive connectivity with wireless speeds up to 500 Mbps, and intelligent, self-healing, continually improving systems that will be secure, learn from their owners, act as true agents, and respond to verbal dialog.