Gary Bauer may have finished a better-than-decent fourth in the Iowa straw poll last month, but he's just taken a major blow to his hopes of claiming the Republican Party's conservative core for next year's presidential nomination: his campaign's national chairman has bolted to the campaign of Steve Forbes.
And a weakened Bauer campaign - or an eventual withdrawal by the Family Research Council president and one-time Reagan Administration official - could mean one less potent threat to free speech and privacy advocates, since Bauer has called openly for re-opening the Justice Department's obscenity prosecution operation.
The Associated Press says Charles Jarvis bolted the Bauer campaign because he believes Bauer - whom he called a longtime friend and ally - cannot win the nomination, whereby Forbes is the only Republican on the conservative side of the party with a real chance.
The Jarvis defection gives Forbes a huge public relations steroid shot in his bid to claim the GOP's conservative flank. And whomever does win conservative loyalty in the primary season will likely give the moderate Bush a powerful fight for the nomination.
"We waged a valiant effort in Iowa," Jarvis says of Bauer, in a memo from the Forbes campaign. "I am very proud of our work. But we must be honest with ourselves. Our efforts…were not enough." The Bauer campaign says they're sorry to lose Jarvis but hoped he could convince Forbes to debate Bauer on issues soon.
Bauer has what some call a selective view of privacy rights. He may want to re-open the door to federal obscenity prosecutions, but he also says he doesn't want to see people's financial or health records posted on the Internet or otherwise sold to whomever will pay for them.
"I oppose government intrusions that assault the Constitution and violate individual rights," he has been quoted as saying.
The mostly self-financed Forbes is well behind Bush in public opinion polls for now, even though Iowa left him and Bauer in the best positions to challenge what the AP calls the establishment wing of the Republican Party which is lining up to "a large extent" behind the Texas governor. In the non-binding Iowa straw poll, Forbes was second behind Bush, with Elizabeth Dole third.
The GOP presidential picture could be thinning soon. Former Vice President Dan Quayle finished eighth in Iowa and is still struggling, says the AP. Pat Buchanan could still be on the brink of jumping the Republican ship in favour of the Reform Party after his own weak Iowa performance. Radio host and lecturer Alan Keyes bested Quayle but is still not considered a strong or serious candidate. And New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith is already running a third-party candidacy.
Which leaves Bush, Forbes and Dole as the most viable fighters for the GOP presidential nomination next year - but depending on who locks up which support going into primary season, that, too, could change without notice.
Bauer isn't the only GOP contestant to lose key campaign personnel. Quayle's already tenuous campaign picture went from bad to worse when his entire South Carolina campaign staff defected to the XXX campaign right after the Iowa results came in.
Even so, Quayle isn't exactly a dead duck yet. He's said to have enough money to continue his campaign through the New Hampshire primary.
Meanwhile, Dole has lost two critical press aides in the last week. Communications director Ari Fleischer resigned last week, and press secretary Michael Paranzino's resignation was announced Wednesday.
Dole is the only other Republican candidate aside from Bauer so far to take any kind of direct position on adult oriented material. She supports legislation mandating porn-blocking software on school and library computers that are subsidized with federal tax monies.
