NETCASTING BEATS PREDICTIONS

but full-length films (adult and otherwise), television-comparable programming, concerts, news clips, and other video presentations can be seen on the Internet now. And Net analysts and businesspeople alike now think the coming growth in the sector could be even bigger than formerly believed. \n

Variety, the near-Scriptures of show business now, published a special edition devoted to Internet Broadcasting late last month. And that issue says there's a real - and huge - Internet audience to broadcast to, with the number of Internet subscribers having high-speed access projected to hit 26 million by 2003.

And, the special edition says, quicker-than-expected broadcast technology improvements from Microsoft and RealNetworks, make it "more bearable" to watch video online.

That doesn't mean that it's kink-free, however, especially with few watching full-length films unless they're accessed through broadband, Internet Broadcasting says. Most Net surfers download by slower-than-56k modems, and most video is still pixilated heavily and often unwatchable, the special edition continues.

But that doesn't stop Web sites from prowling for the best video shorts, studio deals, or libraries, or some filmmakers from putting their own works online - as Adam Sandler did, with his recent The Peeper, a six-minute, racy animation short which helps promote his newest comedy CD.

Ask AtomFilms. They carry independent short films on their Web site for free and distribute them to other outlets like cable television, airlines, and elsewhere.

And, as you saw here earlier this week, SightSound.com is looking to make a big jump into the video market. Not only do they distribute full-length films over the Internet at a price, they're gunning to become the Blockbuster Video of the online world, renting as well as selling downloads of feature length films online.

Cable television is getting into the Netcasting picture too, with the Bravo network starting a broadband service including independent films, but it's also part of promoting the network's own television offerings.

Still, the Internet's success with multimedia content is yet limited, for now: as Internet Broadcasting lists them, interactive porn, live events (porn and otherwise), "talking-heads news content", short films, and animation a la the Sandler short, and it's the non-Hollywood pool of multimedia players who lead the way there, the special edition emphasizes.

And the special edition says Pixelon.com "may convince even critics of the Internet's ability to become an ersatz television or movie screen," with founder Michael Fenne launching a Web site of news and entertainment to make the company the Web's first full-time provide of broadcast-quality, full-screen video.

And he told Internet Broadcasting that while broadband would solve the current jumpiness of the pictures, Pixelon's stepping up its compression engineering and signed agreements with players like MTV, VH1, Paramount, and Edwards Cinemas.

Meanwhile, here's another sign that Netcasting isn't just here but the likely wave of the future, or one of them: a lot of conventional media players and big ones - Disney, Vivendi, the BBC among them - are gearing up for a big international conference on it and related technological questions. And as RealNetworks' Jay Wampold told Internet Broadcasting, it's gone beyond a novelty when narrowband audiences turn events "into the millions".

Consider the reaction to Sandler's The Peeper - it premiered over Labor Day weekend and drew an online audience of millions. And that's as solid a call as you can get - since it's either see it on the Internet or don't even think about it…America's number one vomic actor includes a skit version on his new CD, Stan and Judy's Kid, but the animated short version won't be showing up anywhere offline soon.